In a stunning reversal of expectations and polling from just months ago, the Liberal Party of Canada under Mark Carney is set to secure a fourth term of office, but NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh won’t be returning to the House of Commons.
Based on results released by Elections Canada as of Tuesday morning and the number of outstanding polls set to report, CityNews is projecting the Liberals will form government.
As of 2:30 a.m. EDT, the Liberals were leading and elected in 168 seats. Based on the current standing, that would leave the Liberals in a minority government but a number of races weren’t called as of early Tuesday.
The projected win came more than five weeks after Carney triggered a national election just nine days after being sworn in as Canada’s 24th prime minister.
Throughout the campaign, the Liberals tried to frame the central ballot question as one of Canadian sovereignty and countering U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.
In a victory speech to supporters early Tuesday, Carney promised to “think big” and lead a government that represents all Canadians. He said Canada’s strength relies on working together as a country.
Gains by Carney and the Liberals were at the expense of the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Québécois (BQ).
The NDP paid the bigger price of the two, with the party only leading in seven ridings as of 2:30 a.m. EDT, which is a third of the size of the caucus before the election was called. The party’s total is also five seats short of official party status.
In an emotional speech to supporters in British Columbia, Singh announced he would be stepping down as head of the NDP. He led the party through three federal election campaigns.
Meanwhile, the BQ was down 11 ridings from the time of dissolution (sitting at 23 as of 2:30 a.m. EDT).
During the 36-day contest, the Liberals continually ran ahead of the Conservative Party of Canada in surveys released by the country’s largest polling firms. While polls released in the early days showed differences in the high single digits and low double digits, the gap narrowed in the campaign’s closing days.
However, the Conservatives under leader Pierre Poilievre continually pushed a message of affordability — sometimes attracting criticism from strategists within the party for not pivoting to fight back against Trump in a stronger way.
As of 2:30 a.m. EDT, the Conservatives were leading in 144 seats. As Poilievre conceded the election at around 1 a.m. EDT and suggested he might remain to fight on behalf of the party, he’s set to lose his Carleton (Ontario) riding seat to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy.
Meanwhile, in the lead up to Monday’s election there were questions surrounding the future of the Green Party of Canada. Co-leader Elizabeth May held onto her Saanich–Gulf Islands (British Columbia) seat, but co-leader Jonathan Pedneault came in last place in the Quebec riding of Outremont. Mike Morrice, the party’s only other MP for the riding of Kitchener Centre (Ontario), lost to his Conservative challenger.
No other parties or independent candidates were projected to win any ridings as of Tuesday morning
To get a majority government in Canada, a party needs to hold 172 or the 343 seats in parliament. Under a recent redistribution process, the total number of seats in the House of Commons increased slightly and many ridings saw boundaries change.
source: CityNews phote: CBC
